基于RBC模型的动态随机一般均衡的数值解

以一般均衡为框架,引入随机变量的动态随机一般均衡系统,由于模型的庞大和函数形式的复杂,往往不能给出明确的数值解.本文给出几种操作性强的、有效的寻求一般化模型数值解的方法,并通过介绍模型参数确定的办法,使得理论的模型有了现实的含义.     

Runge–Kutta Methods for Itô Stochastic Differential Equations with Scalar Noise

A general class of stochastic Runge–Kutta methods for Itô stochastic differential equation systems w.r.t. a one-dimensional Wiener process is introduced. The colored rooted tree analysis is applied to derive conditions for the coefficients of the stochastic Runge–Kutta method assuring convergence in the weak sense with a prescribed order. Some coefficients for new stochastic Runge–Kutta schemes of order two are calculated explicitly and a simulation study reveals their good performance.     

Second order Runge–Kutta methods for Stratonovich stochastic differential equations

The weak approximation of the solution of a system of Stratonovich stochastic differential equations with a m–dimensional Wiener process is studied. Therefore, a new class of stochastic Runge–Kutta methods is introduced. As the main novelty, the number of stages does not depend on the dimension m of the driving Wiener process which reduces the computational effort significantly. The colored rooted tree analysis due to the author is applied to determine order conditions for the new stochastic Runge–Kutta methods assuring convergence with order two in the weak sense. Further, some coefficients for second order stochastic Runge–Kutta schemes are calculated explicitly. AMS subject classification (2000)  65C30, 65L06, 60H35, 60H10     

A Distributional Approach to Multiple Stochastic Integrals and Transformations of the Poisson Measure

We study a class of ‘nonpoissonian’ transformations of the configuration space and the corresponding transformations of the Poisson measure. For some class of Poisson measures we find conditions which are sufficient for the transformed measure (which in general is nonpoissonian) to be absolutely continuous with respect to the initial Poisson measure and get the expression for the corresponding Radon–Nikodym derivative. To solve this problem we use a distributional approach to Poisson multiple stochastic integrals.     

火工品可靠性试验数据的综合分析方法

升降法试验数据和固定刺激量下的成败型试验数据,是两种最常见的火工品可靠性试验数据．我们应用Markov链,研究了升降法试验数据下,感度分布参数的极大似然估计的特性．在此基础上,应用Bootstrap方法和Bayes方法,给出了综合分析两种试验数据的方法．最后,将该方法应用于520底火的可靠性鉴定,得出了有益的结论．     

带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型的MCMC算法

我们首先提出了一个带ARMA(1,1)条件异方差相关的随机波动模型,它是基本的随机波动模型的一个自然的推广.进一步,对于这一新模型,我们给出了一个马尔可夫链蒙特卡罗(M CM C)算法.最后,利用该模型的模拟数据,展示了M CM C算法在这种模型中的应用.     

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??We study the linear quadratic optimal stochastic control problem which is jointly driven by Brownian motion and L\'{e}vy processes. We prove that the new affine stochastic differential adjoint equation exists an inverse process by applying the profound section theorem. Applying for the Bellman's principle of quasilinearization and a monotone iterative convergence method, we prove the existence and uniqueness of the solution of the backward Riccati differential equation. Finally, we prove that the optimal feedback control exists, and the value function is composed of the initial value of the solution of the related backward Riccati differential equation and the related adjoint equation.     

基于MCD的稳健主成分算法及其实证分析

主成分分析方法是在经济管理中经常使用的多元统计分析方法,在变量降维方面扮演着很重要的角色,是进行多变量综合评价的有力工具。但传统的主成分分析对于异常值十分敏感,计算结果很容易受到异常值影响,而实际数据常包含异常情况,通常分析很少考虑它们的作用。本文基于MCD估计提出一种稳健的主成分分析方法,模拟和实证分析结果表明,该方法对于抵抗异常值有很好的效果。     

Game of two cars: Case of variable speed

A stochastic version of Isaacs's (Ref. 1) game of two cars is dealt with here. In this version, the pursuer, owing to thrust and drag forces, has a variable speed, whereas the evader's speed is constant. Also, the pursuer can maneuver as long as his speed is bounded by some lower and upper limits. The probability of interception, corresponding to optimal (saddle-point) feedback strategies, is computed and serves as a reference for evaluating the performance of four different versions of the proportional navigation pursuit law as well as two other strategies.     

Large Sample Properties of Mixture Models with Covariates for Competing Risks

We study the large-sample properties of a class of parametric mixture models with covariates for competing risks. The models allow general distributions for the survival times and incorporate the idea of long-term survivors. Asymptotic results are obtained under a commonly assumed independent censoring mechanism and some modest regularity conditions on the survival distributions. The existence, consistency, and asymptotic normality of maximum likelihood estimators for the parameters of the model are rigorously derived under general sufficient conditions. Specific conditions for particular models can be derived from the general conditions for ready check. In addition, a likelihood-ratio statistic is proposed to test various hypotheses of practical interest, and its asymptotic distribution is provided.